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07 August 2015


Conflict Later Isn’t Necessarily More Cataclysmic

David Brooks stated in his OpEd article in the August 7, 2015 NYT that the Iran nuclear deal only makes more likely a cataclysmic conflict between the Western powers and Iran in the future.  Wouldn’t a military confrontation with Iran today be just as cataclysmic?  If so, the alternative made possible by the deal is that that event would not have to take place for at least another ten years. The delay offers the prospect that something might change the attitude of the Iranian regime in the meantime. 

Given the history of popular rule in Persia over the millennia that prospect does seem to be unlikely.  Nevertheless, as long as we devote the vigilance that successful fulfillment of the accord demands from the U.S. and its allies, Iran should not have a stronger nuclear arsenal after the minimum ten-year delay than it has right now.   Therefore, conflict in ten years to prevent resumption of Iran’s nuclear build-up would not be any more difficult then than now, and our ability to combat a nuclear-armed foe should have improved during that period.

Life is like that.  Postponing the inevitable is the only rational choice, whether it be drought in California or cataclysmic conflict in the Middle East.

 

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