18 April 2007
Global Warming and Pascal’s Bet
Is it important whether global warming is due to the actions of man? As Holman Jenkins, Jr. pointed out in the April 4, 2007, Wall Street Journal, a consensus of opinion does not constitute scientific fact. Of course, most scientific “facts” are only hypotheses, constantly subject to testing in order garner universal acceptance through peer review. Until proven otherwise, a generally accepted hypothesis is tantamount to fact.
In any case, what’s really important is whether humanity can slow down global warming. It is incontrovertible that global warming will change life on our planet. If the consensus of opinion is that the change will be for the worse, we are left with a policy question rather than a matter of scientific speculation. The appropriate response is to determine what can be done about it, and to select options that balance the costs with the benefits.
When it comes to global warming, the question of causality is really a matter of faith. Similar to Pascal’s bet, do we lose anything if man turns out not to have caused global warming? Either way, we should be trying to mollify it.
Is it important whether global warming is due to the actions of man? As Holman Jenkins, Jr. pointed out in the April 4, 2007, Wall Street Journal, a consensus of opinion does not constitute scientific fact. Of course, most scientific “facts” are only hypotheses, constantly subject to testing in order garner universal acceptance through peer review. Until proven otherwise, a generally accepted hypothesis is tantamount to fact.
In any case, what’s really important is whether humanity can slow down global warming. It is incontrovertible that global warming will change life on our planet. If the consensus of opinion is that the change will be for the worse, we are left with a policy question rather than a matter of scientific speculation. The appropriate response is to determine what can be done about it, and to select options that balance the costs with the benefits.
When it comes to global warming, the question of causality is really a matter of faith. Similar to Pascal’s bet, do we lose anything if man turns out not to have caused global warming? Either way, we should be trying to mollify it.
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