13 January 2008
Vanishing Excuse in Iraq
I agree with Noah Feldman’s article in the 1.13.08 New York Times Magazine that avoiding the subject of Iraq displays Americans’ embarrassment over our inability to deal heroically with a mistake. We must face the fact that we elected a leader to the Presidency who was unashamed to use the authority of his office to attack another country without provocation. The costs of this escapade in lives and fortune, not to mention its penalties on Iraqis, are the responsibility of all U.S. citizens.
Now we want to extricate ourselves and cover over the mess we made as much as we can. The reduction in the violence in Iraq since the “surge” may give such an exit strategy a convenient rationale; but instead of Professor Feldman’s suggested interpretations, I would suggest another alternative. The decreased number of killings may reflect the realization by Sunni Arab leaders that “their goose is cooked” if the U.S. were to leave Iraq. With a militant Iran across the border and a self-confident Kurdish minority in the North, their best hope to preserve their own influence over civil affairs and the distribution of oil revenues is protection by a powerful third party. Therefore, it behooves them to make the continued occupation as painless as possible for the Americans.
Thus the challenge our next President is likely to face will not be how to stop a genocide. Instead he or she will have to broker and enforce a peaceful division of the country and its resources between Iraq’s three rival factions.
I agree with Noah Feldman’s article in the 1.13.08 New York Times Magazine that avoiding the subject of Iraq displays Americans’ embarrassment over our inability to deal heroically with a mistake. We must face the fact that we elected a leader to the Presidency who was unashamed to use the authority of his office to attack another country without provocation. The costs of this escapade in lives and fortune, not to mention its penalties on Iraqis, are the responsibility of all U.S. citizens.
Now we want to extricate ourselves and cover over the mess we made as much as we can. The reduction in the violence in Iraq since the “surge” may give such an exit strategy a convenient rationale; but instead of Professor Feldman’s suggested interpretations, I would suggest another alternative. The decreased number of killings may reflect the realization by Sunni Arab leaders that “their goose is cooked” if the U.S. were to leave Iraq. With a militant Iran across the border and a self-confident Kurdish minority in the North, their best hope to preserve their own influence over civil affairs and the distribution of oil revenues is protection by a powerful third party. Therefore, it behooves them to make the continued occupation as painless as possible for the Americans.
Thus the challenge our next President is likely to face will not be how to stop a genocide. Instead he or she will have to broker and enforce a peaceful division of the country and its resources between Iraq’s three rival factions.
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