17 June 2008
McCain as Sacrificial Lamb
When the Republicans have conceded in the past that the presidential election was a lost cause--1964, 1976, 1996--they've used the convention to shore up their ideological levees. Usually this has succeeded in assuring a Republican victory for the next election cycle. Unfortunately, when the Democrats have tried to regroup in the face of a seemingly indomitable foe--Nixon, Reagan, Bush 41, Bush 43--they have commonly doomed their own fate for a long time to come.
If the Republican party makes the blunder of stepping away from McCain this summer, they will have taken a page from the Democratic party book. Instead, they will probably stick with the winner of their primaries and use the opportunity to devise a strategy that recaptures a majority of the U.S. electorate. The nomination of McCain in 2008 will probably mean stronger party support for the Democrats' opponent four years later. Obama should win this year, but he will have to prepare for a tough reelection fight.
When the Republicans have conceded in the past that the presidential election was a lost cause--1964, 1976, 1996--they've used the convention to shore up their ideological levees. Usually this has succeeded in assuring a Republican victory for the next election cycle. Unfortunately, when the Democrats have tried to regroup in the face of a seemingly indomitable foe--Nixon, Reagan, Bush 41, Bush 43--they have commonly doomed their own fate for a long time to come.
If the Republican party makes the blunder of stepping away from McCain this summer, they will have taken a page from the Democratic party book. Instead, they will probably stick with the winner of their primaries and use the opportunity to devise a strategy that recaptures a majority of the U.S. electorate. The nomination of McCain in 2008 will probably mean stronger party support for the Democrats' opponent four years later. Obama should win this year, but he will have to prepare for a tough reelection fight.
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