27 September 2009
Alternative to the Iran Attack Plan
By pointing out the ineffectiveness of military actions to alter the nuclear ambitions of the Iranian regime, Anthony H. Cordesman makes a good case in his article on “The Iran Attack Plan” in the September 26-27, Wall Street Journal, for an intense program of economic and even “quality of life” sanctions on Iran. If military actions will not assure that the governing regime in Iran respects international rules of behavior for political states, then the only best solution is to foment domestic revolt. The people of Iran are so inured to oppressive rule by dynastic or religious regimes that they will not easily be convinced of their power to overthrow an order that is harmful to the interests of the world at large and ultimately to their own well being.
A strategy of severe blockade of commercial and humanitarian products and services will have no more devastating an effect on living conditions in Iran than a military attack. Its advantage will be limiting the human cost for the sanctioning powers to those caused by defense against retaliatory actions attempted by the Iranian regime. For this policy to work in Iran, however, it will be necessary to undertake a determined public information program to teach their incipient leaders (a) their responsibility for the good behavior of their government and (b) the most effective methods of non-violent revolution.
This strategy is not likely to be tremendously less expensive than military attack, and it will probably take much more time to achieve regime change. However, it will win wide international support, make fewer human life demands on the sanctioning powers, and leave in its wake an Iran that may forever be governed in accordance with the informed will of its people.
By pointing out the ineffectiveness of military actions to alter the nuclear ambitions of the Iranian regime, Anthony H. Cordesman makes a good case in his article on “The Iran Attack Plan” in the September 26-27, Wall Street Journal, for an intense program of economic and even “quality of life” sanctions on Iran. If military actions will not assure that the governing regime in Iran respects international rules of behavior for political states, then the only best solution is to foment domestic revolt. The people of Iran are so inured to oppressive rule by dynastic or religious regimes that they will not easily be convinced of their power to overthrow an order that is harmful to the interests of the world at large and ultimately to their own well being.
A strategy of severe blockade of commercial and humanitarian products and services will have no more devastating an effect on living conditions in Iran than a military attack. Its advantage will be limiting the human cost for the sanctioning powers to those caused by defense against retaliatory actions attempted by the Iranian regime. For this policy to work in Iran, however, it will be necessary to undertake a determined public information program to teach their incipient leaders (a) their responsibility for the good behavior of their government and (b) the most effective methods of non-violent revolution.
This strategy is not likely to be tremendously less expensive than military attack, and it will probably take much more time to achieve regime change. However, it will win wide international support, make fewer human life demands on the sanctioning powers, and leave in its wake an Iran that may forever be governed in accordance with the informed will of its people.
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