Frank's Musings

Donald Trump has been charged with colluding with the Russians in relation to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  He probably believes that he has skillfully played a classic game with Vladimir Putin, by not admitting to him that he doesn’t want to penalize Russia for occupying Crimea and invading other portions of that country so that Putin doesn’t have to admit any aggressive intentions towards the United States.

Trump believes he has been playing the part of a willing collaborator with an equally diabolical enemy in a competition that allows each of them to gain geopolitical advantages at no mortal cost to the other player.  This game has apparently saved both countries in the past from mutual nuclear destruction.   However, recent cyber-attacks on American agencies and corporations may portend a breakdown of that tacit collusion between the two countries. 

The evidence of hacking of American digital networks shows that the Russians have apparently decided that they may be able to take advantage of inattention by their American rivals to how critically dependent the U.S. is on computer networks for its power as an arbiter of international geopolitics.  The remedy to this threat of electronic crippling will have to be a demonstration of commensurate Russian vulnerability to interference in a crucial sector of its economy, if not communications then oil and gas. 

Ultimately, Russia and America are stuck in a prisoner’s dilemma in which one potential sanction each of them has on the other is deprivation of clean energy.  Even more important will be the complications brought to this game by the entry of China into the mix.  This challenge will necessarily face Trump’s successor, as well, for the game will go on regardless of who occupies the White House.