Frank's Musings

No matter the mistaken assumption of the Biden administration that democracy is a universal value, not so in the Persian tradition. Therefore, the pain of sanctions on the Iranian people will not result in a change of government.

In order effectively to deter Iranian government policy, and particularly international terrorism, sanctions should pose financial and communications obstacles to the operations of the ruling fundamentalist class. These certainly would have harmful commercial impacts; however, they might be more immediately painful for the government officials of Iran, who are not concerned with he material discomfort of their population. Of course, the public will also suffer, but not any worse than under trade sanctions.

The rule of the religious right does not impact on the prevalence of corruption either, Islam’s moral code apparently discounts the importance of public equity and fairness. Those are secular values, not fundamentalist.

Unfortunately, there is little likelihood that using sanctions that impose barriers that affect Iranian consumers will lead them to overthrow the current regime.  They have been ruled by authoritarian regimes for countless centuries and are accustomed to it.  Their philosophy separates the government from the people.  A small number of educated Persians share Western enlightenment beliefs, but they are content to limit the application of those beliefs to their own families and circles of friends. It is only observers from Western countries who think that those values include the universal practice of democratic republicanism.

Trade Sanctions are indeed a blunt, non-discriminatory weapon (as they are also in Afghanistan or Sudan).  They are easily used to depict the countries imposing them as enemies of the people by regimes that have no fear of domestic revolt.

Appeasing the reactionary Republicans led by Trump is a thorny path for Biden to follow.  The Iranian regime is masterful at diverting attention from the real concern that the U.S. and its European allies have for their support of international terrorism by keeping alive the threat of nuclear weaponry.  The Iranian population seems to be content to let their rulers play this game, as if it were not their affair, even though trade sanctions have caused them harm.  A non-violent overthrow of the current regime in Iran needs domestic leadership; however, after countless centuries of authoritarian rule in Persia no long-lasting effective indigenous resistance force has ever arisen in the country.  

It is primarily foreign observers and Western-educated Iranians who decry the rule of the mullahs.  And Persian nationalism defends the country's right to defy "the comity of nations."   If Western countries adhere to their Glasgow pledges, Iran’s international leverage will steadily shift towards China until that country becomes less dependent on oil and gas for its energy needs.  

In the meantime, even under fundamentalist religious rule Iran will be forced to redouble its renewable energy sources, like nuclear, solar, wind and hydroelectric.  It will be a long wait for impatient politicians in Israel, the U.S., and others in the region; but it is inevitable.  Ironically, the freedom of the fundamentalist rulers of Iran to follow their obstreperous political and social policies depends on their acquiescence to secular values in their dealings with the West.  After all, that is the comity of nations.