05 November 2023
Resentment Wins
The most recent NYTimes/Siena polling numbers showing declines in Biden’s approval numbers compared with Trump reflect, more than anything else, the resentment felt by poll respondents towards commercial media-reported opinion leaders, domestic and foreign, who they believe mistakenly think a majority of Americans doesn’t know what’s good for the country.
That’s a very loaded statement, I know. First, I challenge the ability of polls accurately to predict future national election outcomes, regardless of responses on likelihood to vote. Second, I believe there has been a growing trend for the public to rely on untrustworthy social media for political information over regulated and professionally edited news organizations. Third, it is commonly thought that foreign observers are presumptuous to judge the wisdom of Americans to govern themselves; in fact, for many people international disapproval is an incentive stubbornly to act contrarily.
Therefore, the results of telephone polls on prospective elections are naturally biased against the status quo. Taking those results as predictions assumes that candidates don’t monitor them and act accordingly. Biden is known for swiftly “reading the room” and will adjust his reelection tactics to maximize voting participation by those who understand what is really at stake in 2024.
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