Frank's Musings

A recent NYT / Siena Poll reports the preferences of “likely voters” in the 2024 presidential election. Assuming that that category is self-selected, the poll obviously is biased in favor of those citizens who feel most highly motivated to plan ahead and devote the time and personal inconvenience needed to carry out that intent.

The question is whether the statistical margin of error adequately accounts for a possible change in the strength of that motivation as the voting date approaches. This change can work in either direction.  History is replete with public opinion polls that proved to be contradicted by subsequent election results, e.g., Truman vs. Dewey in 1948 and Trump vs. Clinton in 2016.  Voters who thought then how they would vote and that they were or were not likely to vote when asked the question for the opinion poll apparently changed their minds.

With the growing evidence that Donald Trump’s civil and criminal legal troubles are diminishing the enthusiasm of his supporters, it may be reasonable to distrust current public opinion reports as reliable predictions of the likely election results in November 2024.  Nevertheless, the Biden campaign mustn’t relax the forcefulness of its messaging on the superiority of the current president over his predecessor, particularly with respect to the improved benefits of his programs and performance for the public, not to mention the danger that Trump’s reelection will mean for the security of the U.S. and for the health of our democracy.